The scope covers all vehicle volume and platform breakdowns, including battery-electric, fuel cell and hybrid vehicle unit sales, battery demand (GWh) and market revenue generation. The report further details emerging technology trends underpinning the transition, from silicon-anode batteries to axial-flux motors and DC fast-charging
Electric Cars
Electric car markets will be the largest electric vehicle markets for the next 20 years in terms of battery demand and market revenue generation. Unit sales surged in 2021 to over 6.4 million, despite a lingering chip shortage and price rises in key raw materials. The report provides a long-term market forecast on battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, hybrid and fuel cell car markets from 2022 through 2042. Growth has been consistent across all major auto markets. While China remains the largest electric vehicle market, Europe has been catching up, driven by strong emissions policy as 2021 was the first full year of the new 95g CO2 per km target. In the US, the market continues to be underpinned by Tesla, particularly with the success of the Model Y. The situation is evolving rapidly as Biden as well as traditional automakers have re-energised their electrification targets. Automakers have also announced plans to release and ramp up production of new electric pickup trucks, the most popular passenger car type, in a bid for EV leadership over the next few years. Key examples are Ford’s electric F-150 and General Motors’ Silverado.
Electric Buses
Tier 1 cities in China were the first to adopt electric buses, driving rapid growth between 2012-2016, but now many of these markets are saturated. In 2018, Beijing and Shanghai had 9,368 pure electric buses constituting 55% of the combined fleet, all initially powered by a 50% purchase subsidy. The saturation of Tier 1 cities in China has caused global electric bus sales to decline for the past five years, offset only slightly by growth from Tier 2 and 3 cities in China. Today, subsidies have been greatly reduced.
Electric Light Commercial Vehicles (aka Vans)
Astute businesses are recognising that electrifying their light commercial vehicle (LCV) fleets is not only a successful mechanism by which they can demonstrate their green credentials to their customers, but is also, increasingly, a good economic decision. Today the electric LCV market is at a nascent stage, it is much smaller than the electric car market and comparatively few models have been available for purchase.
Electric Trucks
Tesla, Daimler, VW and Volvo are all investing heavily in battery electric trucks. A smaller minority, Toyota, Hyundai, and Nikola, have chosen to focus their efforts on fuel cell trucks as the powertrain of the future. Despite issues with the efficiency and cost of hydrogen as a fuel, FCEV remains in the conversation as a technology for long haul trucking applications, where a greater range is required, though the viability of this technology is dependent on the production of low-cost green hydrogen.
Electric Trucks
Tesla, Daimler, VW and Volvo are all investing heavily in battery electric trucks. A smaller minority, Toyota, Hyundai, and Nikola, have chosen to focus their efforts on fuel cell trucks as the powertrain of the future. Despite issues with the efficiency and cost of hydrogen as a fuel, FCEV remains in the conversation as a technology for long haul trucking applications, where a greater range is required, though the viability of this technology is dependent on the production of low-cost green hydrogen.
Electric & Hybrid Marine
The electric boating market has tripled since covid-19 emerged as more time away from the office has led to increased interest and free time for leisure boating. The industry also saw the first market entry from an incumbent outboard maker, Mercury Marine, which will further drive growth and promote the industry.
Electric Vehicles in Construction
The report finds there are few strong market drivers for electric vehicles in construction when compared to on-road EV markets. Broader commitments to climate change are spurring some countries, like Norway and Holland, or companies, like Volvo, to set their own targets.
Li-ion & Advanced Li-ion Battery Cells & Packs
Li-ion batteries based on graphite anodes and layered oxide cathodes (NMC, NCA) have been ubiquitous in consumer electronics for over a decade and have come to dominate large parts of electric vehicle markets.
Power Electronics
In automotive power electronics (inverters, onboard chargers, DC-DC converters), key advancements are being made to improve powertrain efficiency, allowing for either battery pack capacity reduction or improved range. One of the key avenues to achieving greater efficiencies is the transition to silicon carbide MOSFETs and high voltage vehicle platforms at or above 800V.
